Research

Here you can find articles & video with the latest news that's important to real estate investors, charts to make the information clear and papers from the best minds in the industry. Click on the headlines to open the full story.

2011 Q4 Update and 2012 Forecast

Posted: December 31st, 2011



UPDATE & OPINION
The fourth quarter was a busy one for Pacific Value Opportunities Fund I, as we acquired two additional assets: a 24-unit apartment building located in the Koreatown area of Los Angeles, and another single-family home in South Los Angeles. The Fund now owns two apartment buildings (85 units total, including one non-conforming unit) and four homes. Of the original Fund equity, we have invested approximately 95% to fund the acquisitions and various capital improvements made to the acquired assets. As discussed in more detail below, we anticipate monetizing one or more Fund assets in the next 12 to 18 months. Details of the Fund assets are as follows:

Southland Housing Market’s Vital Signs Remain Weak

Posted: August 18th, 2011



PRESS RELEASE, MDA DATAQUICK

Southern California home sales fell last month to the lowest level for a July in four years, though the decline from a year earlier was the smallest in 13 months. The drop in sales from June was more pronounced, especially for $500,000-plus homes, as the job market sputtered, economic uncertainty intensified and some potential homebuyers got cold feet, a real estate information service reported.

Harvard 2011 America’s Rental Housing Summary

Posted: June 8th, 2011


PAPER, HARVARD UNIVERSITY
The troubled homeowner market, along with demographic shifts, has highlighted the vital role that the rental sector plays in providing affordable homes on flexible terms. But while rental housing is the home of choice for a diverse cross-section of Americans, it is also the home of necessity for millions of low-income households.

Sequoia Real Estate Partners, Q1 2011 Investor Market Summary and Forecast

Posted: April 5th, 2011



OPINION, SREP
In the same week the sobering Case-Shiller housing data is released, Fortune Magazine’s cover reads, “The Return of Real Estate”, with the accompanying story captioned “Real Estate: It’s Time to Buy Again”. And, if that were not enough to cause confusion, my beloved Costco Connection (yes, I am an Executive Member) runs a story, “What’s Up with Real Estate”, the article’s central premise being that now might be a good time to buy a home.
Indeed, 2011 has thus far been a “head scratcher,” with nobody, especially economists and the so-called market analysts able to agree on what all this contradictory information means. Frankly, I am not sure I am in any better position to do so. However, what I can say, without equivocation, is that my views on the residential rental market, including the buy/hold/rent strategy of single-family residences, remain unchanged. With the continued fear and uncertainty in the real estate market I am just as bullish as I was back in 2010, when we started the Sequoia Fund.

Fortune: It’s time to buy again

Posted: March 29th, 2011


ARTICLE, FORTUNE
…Eventually reality set in, and prices plummeted. Our current view focuses on those same fundamentals — only now they’re pointing in the opposite direction.
So let’s state it simply and forcibly: Housing is back.

Delinquency Rate on U.S. Mortgages Declines

Posted: November 18th, 2010


ARTICLE, NY TIMES, 11.18.2010
The mortgage delinquency rate in the United States declined last quarter amid hints of improvement in the job market, but headwinds from defaults and a rising rate of new foreclosure applications keep the housing outlook muddied, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.

O.C. home prices to surge 49%, UCLA economists say

Posted: October 28th, 2010


ARTICLE, OC REGISTER, 10.27.2010
Economists with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast foresee O.C. home prices climbing above $500,000 in 2012 for the first time since April 2008. Prices are expected to appreciate from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015 — and, all told, grow 49% in the next six years.

New home sales rise 6.6 pct. after dismal summer

Posted: October 28th, 2010


ARTICLE, ASSOC. PRESS, 10.27.2010
Sales of new homes improved last month after the worst summer in nearly five decades, but not enough to lift the struggling economy.
The Commerce Department says new home sales in September grew 6.6 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 307,000.

Short Sales Resisted as Foreclosures Are Revived

Posted: October 25th, 2010


ARTICLE, NY TIMES, 10.24.2010
Bank of America and GMAC are firing up their formidable foreclosure machines again today, after a brief pause………..But some major lenders took a quick inventory of their foreclosure practices and insisted their processes were sound. They now seem intent on resuming foreclosures. And that could have a profound effect on many homeowners.

US home repossessions spike in August to highest level since start of mortgage crisis

Posted: September 16th, 2010


ARTICLE, ASSOC. PRESS, 09.16.2010
Banks have been stepping up repossessions to clear out their backlog of bad loans with an eye on eventually placing the foreclosed properties on the market, but they can’t afford to simply dump the properties on the market.

Sequoia Investment Partners, August 2010 Investor Market Summary and Forecast

Posted: August 18th, 2010


OPINION, SREP, 08.18.2010
So what does this mean for residential real estate? Modestly lower prices, as slackening demand and continued foreclosures are offset by historically low rates and available financing. Meanwhile, rents have stabilized, reflecting an improving economy (even a modest recovery translates into a stronger rental market). In short, we are finally seeing some promising investment opportunities in both the multi- and single-family markets…….

California leading employment indicator shows growth to come

Posted: August 5th, 2010


ARTICLE, LA TIMES, 08.05.2010
…..an employment indicator released Wednesday by Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research shows that employment in California will continue to tick up this year. It indicates that year-over-year job growth will turn positive in the fourth quarter this year, something that hasn’t happened consistently in the state since 2007.

Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery

Posted: July 11th, 2010


ARTICLE, NY TIMES, 06.11.2010
While much of the country remains fixated on the bleak employment picture, hiring is beginning to pick up in the place that led the economy into recession — Wall Street.

Think housing is recovering? Think again.

Posted: May 25th, 2010


ARTICLE, FORTUNE, 05.25.2010
we’re coming off of an artificial bump from the first time home buyer credit, which expired last month. He predicts the second half of this year will see sluggish economic growth and that housing prices, at best, will be flat for the next few months, while commercial real estate “is likely to see significant declines.”

Fed Raises U.S. Growth Range, Sees Lower Unemployment

Posted: May 20th, 2010


ARTICLE, BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK, 05.20.2010
Federal Reserve officials raised their U.S. growth estimates for 2010 and lowered forecasts for unemployment and inflation, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 27-28.

Economy Gains Impetus as U.S. Adds 290,000 Jobs

Posted: May 7th, 2010


ARTICLE, NY TIMES, 05.07.2010
At a time of extreme uncertainty in the financial markets, the American economy is showing signs of a sustained recovery, adding an unexpectedly high number of jobs last month.

AllianceBernstein Housing Recomendation

Posted: April 15th, 2010


PAPER 12.2009, AllianceBernstein Research Dept.
“..our analysis indicates it is time to begin looking beyond the near term risks and toward the long-term opportunities.”

“I Understand” by Tom Barrack jr. of Colony Capital

Posted: April 15th, 2010


OPINION: However, the most salient and timeless answer echoes from the soft and timid voice of Chance the Gardener, Peter Sellers’ character in the famous movie “Being There.”

Job Losses in Different Recessions

Posted: April 14th, 2010

CHART: Job Losses in different recessions

New round of foreclosures threatens housing market

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, WASHINGTON POST 03.12.2010
About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale.

“Cash for Keys” Aids Home Borrowers, Investors

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, REUTERS 03.12.2010
Jon Daurio, chief executive officer of mortgage investor Kondaur Capital Corp., recently offered a $4,000 check to Barry Culver for the deed to his Bryan, Ohio house.

No Help in Sight, More Homeowners Walk Away

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, NY TIMES 02.03.2010
“People like me are beginning to feel like suckers,” Mr. Koellmann said. “Why not let it go in default and rent a better place for less?”

Don’t Bet the Farm on the Housing Recovery by Robert Shiller of Yale University

Posted: April 12th, 2010

OPINION, By ROBERT J. SHILLER 04.09.2010 Yale University
MUCH hope has been pinned on the recovery in home prices that began about a year ago. A long-lasting housing recovery might provide a balm to households, mortgage lenders and the entire United States economy. But will the recovery be sustained?
Alas, the evidence is equivocal at best.

New wave of foreclosures by end of 2010 is feared

Posted: April 12th, 2010


ARTICLE, LA TIMES 02.16.2010
Experts fear that a new wave of foreclosures will hit this year as prolonged unemployment makes it difficult for millions of homeowners to pay their mortgages — and many of them aren’t likely to get much help from a federal program aimed at keeping them in their houses.

Southern California apartment rents are expected to keep falling

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, LA Times 04.08.2010
A study shows the average cost dropping as much as 3.5% in L.A. County this year, 2.4% in Orange County and less than 1% in San Bernardino and Riverside counties but inching up in San Diego County.

UCLA Anderson Forecast, March 2010

Posted: April 12th, 2010


ARTICLE, UCLA/Anderson School of Management 3.24.2010
The UCLA Anderson Forecast renders a “bipolar” diagnosis for the national economy, referencing the dual conditions of slow-but-sure growth in the national gross domestic product, coupled with an unemployment rate predicted to remain in double digits until 2012.

Option ARM Borrowers Running Out Of Time

Posted: March 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, REALTYTRAC 03.2010
Of all the mortgage ideas developed during the past few years, none tops the option ARM for sheer awfulness. And now the mortgage mess is about to get far worse as millions of option ARMs begin to recast. Not “reset” — but recast.

Housing Forecast: More Foreclosures, Home-Price Declines

Posted: January 27th, 2010


ARTICLE, TIME/CNN, 01.07.2010
The decimated housing market may get considerably worse before it gets better, according to housing-industry professionals, who expect foreclosures and home-price declines to continue pressuring the sector through at least the first half of 2010.

Case-Shiller Housing White Paper Year in Review 2009

Posted: January 16th, 2010


PAPER, CASE SHILLER YEAR IN REVIEW 2009
Standard & Poor’s chief economist, David Wyss, has provided us with his forecast for the residential housing market. His team expects housing sales and starts to drop over the winter, but to remain well above their early 2009 lows, and to recover in the spring.

Negative Equity and Foreclosure

Posted: June 6th, 2008


PAPER, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON, 06.05.2008
Christopher L. Foote and Paul S. Willen are senior economists and policy advisors