Research

Here you can find articles & video with the latest news that's important to real estate investors, charts to make the information clear and papers from the best minds in the industry. Click on the headlines to open the full story.

Interest rates are low, but it’s still hard to get a mortgage

Posted: October 10th, 2012


WASHINGTON — With 30-year mortgage rates hitting new lows and recent borrowers’ payment performance the best by far in decades, you’d think that banks and other lenders might be loosening up on their hyper-strict underwriting standards.

But new national data from inside the industry suggest this is not happening. In fact, in some key areas, standards appear to be tightening even further, and the time needed to close a loan is getting longer.

2011 Q4 Update and 2012 Forecast

Posted: December 31st, 2011



UPDATE & OPINION
The fourth quarter was a busy one for Pacific Value Opportunities Fund I, as we acquired two additional assets: a 24-unit apartment building located in the Koreatown area of Los Angeles, and another single-family home in South Los Angeles. The Fund now owns two apartment buildings (85 units total, including one non-conforming unit) and four homes. Of the original Fund equity, we have invested approximately 95% to fund the acquisitions and various capital improvements made to the acquired assets. As discussed in more detail below, we anticipate monetizing one or more Fund assets in the next 12 to 18 months. Details of the Fund assets are as follows:

Big Funds Build Case for Housing

Posted: December 30th, 2011

Big money is starting to wager on housing.

Hedge funds run by Caxton Associates LP, SAC Capital Advisors LP, Avenue Capital and Blackstone Group LP have been buying housing-related investments, betting on a rebound. And formerly bearish research firm Zelman & Associates now predicts a housing pickup, as does Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Foreclosure reforms may be coming to a head

Posted: August 18th, 2011



ARTICLE, LA TIMES

Getting banks, investors and borrowers together to work out a solution that benefits them all is the most promising idea to emerge since the housing market first crashed.

Foreclosures fall for 10th straight month

Posted: August 18th, 2011



ARTICLE, CNN
Foreclosure filings dropped once again in July, hitting their lowest level since November 2007, as processing delays and foreclosure prevention measures enabled a larger number of delinquent borrowers to remain in their homes.

Filings were down 4% compared to June and were 35% lower than July 2010, marking the tenth straight month of year-over-year declines, according to RealtyTrac, a leading online marketer of foreclosed properties.

Mortgage Rates Keep Falling

Posted: August 18th, 2011



ARTICLE, CNN
Just when it seemed mortgage rates weren’t going to get any lower, they started testing new lows.

In the tumultuous days following Standard & Poor’s debt downgrades, rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 4.32%, down from 4.39% last week and closed in on a record low of 4.17% set last November, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Rates on 15-year fixed mortgages set a new record for the second week in a row, falling to 3.5%, down from 3.54% last week.

California Mortgage Defaults Drop Again; Foreclosures up

Posted: April 26th, 2011


ARTICLE, MDA DATAQUICK
The number of financially distressed California homeowners who were dragged into the formal foreclosure process declined again last quarter, the result of turmoil and policy changes within the mortgage industry as well as shifts in the economy, a real estate information service reported.

Southland Home Sales Dip; Prices Change Little

Posted: December 15th, 2010


La Jolla, CA—Southern California home sales fell in November to the second-lowest level for that month in 18 years, reflecting the weak economic recovery, a dormant new-home market and tight credit conditions. The median price paid for a home rose above a year earlier for the 12th consecutive month, though November’s gain was the tiniest yet, a real estate information service reported.

Home Prices in U.S. Will `Bounce Along the Bottom,’ Case Says

Posted: December 1st, 2010


ARTICLE, BLOOMBERG, 11.30.2010
U.S. home prices are unlikely to fall much further in the next year even after a “discouraging” report on values in September, said Karl E. Case, the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.

“If I were betting even odds, I’d bet that we don’t have much further decline, but that we bounce along the bottom,” Case, a retired professor of economics at Wellesley College, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview on “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene.

Fed boss: Regulators looking into foreclosure mess

Posted: October 25th, 2010


ARTICLE, ASSOC.PRESS, 10.24.2010
Preliminary results of the in-depth review into the practices of the nation’s largest mortgage companies are expected to be released next month, Bernanke said in remarks to a housing-finance conference in Arlington, Va.
“We are looking intensively at the firms’ policies, procedures and internal controls related to foreclosures and seeking to determine whether systematic weaknesses are leading to improper foreclosures,” Bernanke said. “We take violation of proper procedures very seriously,” he added.

Foreclosures Halted In 23 States: Plantiffs’ Lawyers Rejoice (California, Nevada and Arizona not affected)

Posted: October 7th, 2010


ARTICLE, CBS NEWS, 10.05.2010
GMAC Mortgage, JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America have suspended foreclosures in 23 states to evaluate if there were errors due to “robo-signing“. “Robo-signers” are bank middle managers who sign the paperwork that allowed banks to repossess homes that are in default, without properly reviewing the underlying documents they were signing.

Multifamily Sales Defy the Slump

Posted: September 22nd, 2010


ARTICLE, WSJ, 09.22.2010
Home buyers might be sitting on the sidelines, but multifamily-building sales are on the rise, reversing the slowdown that followed the financial market’s collapse two years ago.
The vacancy rate, which peaked at 7.4% at the end of last year, is expected to drop to 5.5% by the end of 2011, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors.

Bad Debts Rise as Bust Erodes Home Equity

Posted: August 12th, 2010


ARTICLE, NY TIMES, 08.11.2010
The delinquency rate on home equity loans is higher than all other types of consumer loans, including auto loans, boat loans, personal loans and even bank cards like Visa and MasterCard, according to the American Bankers Association…… Even when a lender forces a borrower to settle through legal action, it can rarely extract more than 10 cents on the dollar. “People got 90 cents for free,” Mr. Combs said. “It rewards immorality, to some extent.”

Negative Homeowner Equity and Strategic Mortgage Defaults Boost Retail Sales but Pose Another Risk to Recovery

Posted: June 18th, 2010


PAPER, MARCUS & MILLICHAP, 06.2010
Drastic reductions in home values have driven many homeowners’ equity to negative levels, and returning to break-even will, for most, require several years. Consequently, a significant portion of these upside-down homeowners will walk away from their houses, even if they have the financial means to continue making payments.

Core Logic: Commercial Market Monitor

Posted: June 18th, 2010


PAPER, FIRST AMERICAN CORE LOGIC, 06.2010
In 2010, over $283 billion in commercial mortgages will mature and need to be refi nanced or sold. This forecast is based upon CoreLogic property
records data and is updated on an ongoing monthly basis. All analyses presented herein examine the corollaries between property ownership and
mortgage holder information.

Mortgage Rates at New Lows, Thanks to Europe’s Debt Crisis

Posted: May 25th, 2010


ARTICLE, CNBC, 05.24.2010
Here’s some good news for the struggling US housing market: Thanks to the European debt crisis, mortgage rates are at historic lows.

The Coming Wave of Option-ARM and Alt-A Mortgage Resets

Posted: April 26th, 2010


STRATEGY, SEQUOIA RESEARCH, 4.22.2010
“We presently find ourselves in the relative calm between two waves.”

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Rise 16% as Bank Seizures Set Record

Posted: April 16th, 2010

ARTICLE, BLOOMBERG 4.15.2010
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose 16 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and bank seizures hit a record as lenders stepped up action against delinquent homeowners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

Real Interest Rates, Expected Inflation, And Real Estate Returns- A Comparison of the U.S. and Canada

Posted: April 16th, 2010


PAPER, UCLA ZIMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE
In the United States, but not in Canada, nominal interest on residential housing mortgages
is a deductible expense. This suggests that changes in
nominal interest rates should have a more negative impact on Canadian real estate than on real estate in the US. This paper uses real estate investment trusts along with expected inflation in both countries to find empirical evidence to support this theory.

The Implosion of the CDO Market and the Pricing of Subprime Mortgage-Backed Securities

Posted: April 16th, 2010


PAPER, UCLA ZIMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE
Because CDO issuance played an important role in the market for subprime mortgage-backed securities (MBS), this striking rise and fall provides an excellent laboratory for studying the interest rate spreads on the underlying subprime MBS collateral.

Watchdog panel says Obama plan to ease foreclosure crisis does too little, comes too late

Posted: April 16th, 2010

ARTICLE, AP, 4.14.2010
A watchdog panel overseeing the financial bailouts says the Obama administration’s flagship mortgage aid program lags well behind the foreclosure crisis and leaves too many families out.

AllianceBernstein Housing Recomendation

Posted: April 15th, 2010


PAPER 12.2009, AllianceBernstein Research Dept.
“..our analysis indicates it is time to begin looking beyond the near term risks and toward the long-term opportunities.”

No Help in Sight, More Homeowners Walk Away

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, NY TIMES 02.03.2010
“People like me are beginning to feel like suckers,” Mr. Koellmann said. “Why not let it go in default and rent a better place for less?”

Don’t Bet the Farm on the Housing Recovery by Robert Shiller of Yale University

Posted: April 12th, 2010

OPINION, By ROBERT J. SHILLER 04.09.2010 Yale University
MUCH hope has been pinned on the recovery in home prices that began about a year ago. A long-lasting housing recovery might provide a balm to households, mortgage lenders and the entire United States economy. But will the recovery be sustained?
Alas, the evidence is equivocal at best.

New wave of foreclosures by end of 2010 is feared

Posted: April 12th, 2010


ARTICLE, LA TIMES 02.16.2010
Experts fear that a new wave of foreclosures will hit this year as prolonged unemployment makes it difficult for millions of homeowners to pay their mortgages — and many of them aren’t likely to get much help from a federal program aimed at keeping them in their houses.

Commercial property buyers and sellers remain far apart

Posted: April 12th, 2010


ARTICLE, LA Times 04.05.2010
Despite some improvements in the economy, potential buyers and sellers of Los Angeles-area commercial real estate are still far apart in their perceptions of what prices should be, an investment bank said Monday.

As Fed’s mortgage purchases end, eyes turn to investors

Posted: April 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, LA Times March 31, 2010
The government’s $1.25-trillion program to prop up the housing market by purchasing mortgages came to an end Wednesday — in a small, messy room at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with four desks and a Nerf basketball hoop.

Option ARM Borrowers Running Out Of Time

Posted: March 12th, 2010

ARTICLE, REALTYTRAC 03.2010
Of all the mortgage ideas developed during the past few years, none tops the option ARM for sheer awfulness. And now the mortgage mess is about to get far worse as millions of option ARMs begin to recast. Not “reset” — but recast.

Housing Forecast: More Foreclosures, Home-Price Declines

Posted: January 27th, 2010


ARTICLE, TIME/CNN, 01.07.2010
The decimated housing market may get considerably worse before it gets better, according to housing-industry professionals, who expect foreclosures and home-price declines to continue pressuring the sector through at least the first half of 2010.

Case-Shiller Housing White Paper Year in Review 2009

Posted: January 16th, 2010


PAPER, CASE SHILLER YEAR IN REVIEW 2009
Standard & Poor’s chief economist, David Wyss, has provided us with his forecast for the residential housing market. His team expects housing sales and starts to drop over the winter, but to remain well above their early 2009 lows, and to recover in the spring.

Underwater and Not Walking Away…..

Posted: October 10th, 2009


PAPER, U of A SCHOOL OF LAW, OCTOBER 2009
This article suggests that most homeowners choose not to strategically default as a result of two emotional forces: 1) the desire to avoid the shame and guilt of foreclosure; and 2) exaggerated anxiety over foreclosure’s perceived consequences.